AGP Executive Report

India–Japan Summit: PM Modi and Japan’s Sanae Takaichi announced new pacts to deepen defence, critical minerals, AI and clean-energy cooperation, with Japan pitching a major investment push. Indo-Pacific Security: Japan said it will keep sanctions on Russia and support Ukraine in line with the international community. Taiwan Strait Tensions: Taiwan condemned China’s coast-guard deployments near the island, accusing Beijing of trying to treat the strait as internal waters. India–Sri Lanka Cricket: BCCI set a two-Test series in August (Aug 15 in Galle; Aug 23 in Colombo). EV Push in India: Industry leaders urged localisation, policy continuity and easier business rules to make India a global EV hub. Ayurveda Globalisation: Niti Aayog proposed a global licensing framework to scale Ayurveda worldwide. Odisha Industry Deal: Adani Enterprises and IHC/IRH plan an $11.5bn aluminium project in Odisha, including refinery, smelter and power. Crypto Payments: Bitget Wallet launched a Mastercard-linked crypto card across South Asia. Zimbabwe–China Labour: Zimbabwe urged Chinese investors to follow local labour laws and join social dialogue as Chinese investment tops $10bn. US Immigration Shockwave: Reports say the Trump administration is pursuing a “Plan B” to deny documentation to US-born children of temporary visa holders, including many Indian H-1B families. Tech Supply Chain: Taiwan’s AI hardware boom is driving a scramble for critical materials, with executives warning supply bottlenecks remain the main constraint.

Philippines-Canada Ties: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. heads to Vancouver to deepen Canada’s role in Indo-Pacific peace and security, pointing to shared support for UNCLOS and the 2016 arbitral award. Japan-India Summit: Japan PM Sanae Takaichi arrives for talks with Modi focused on economic security, trade, semiconductors, digital tech, defense and investment links—amid domestic Diet pressure at home. Japan Border Tech: Japan is rolling out QR-based, pre-arrival digital entry to replace slow immigration queues, aiming for “frictionless” travel. WTA Finals Move: The WTA shifts its Finals from Riyadh to Indian Wells after the Saudi deal ends early. India Digital Payments: UPI expands globally as India launches UPI in Greece, while India marks 11 years of Digital India at the UN, highlighting JAM and DigiLocker growth. India Economy Watch: India’s industrial output rises 5.1% in May; GST and social protection gains stay in focus. China-ASEAN Trade: China’s export price surge and supply-chain resilience plans underscore shifting trade dynamics, while ASEAN’s role is debated as more than a transit hub. China Ethnic Unity Law: Tibetan activists protest the law’s enforcement, warning of identity and cultural erosion. Markets/Finance: Japan’s yen weakness and weaker JGB auction demand raise global risk jitters; EU chipmakers face a “bleak future” amid US and China pressures. Sports: India vs England T20I is abandoned due to rain, with Vaibhav Sooryavanshi still waiting for a debut.

India–Malaysia Defence Talks: India and Malaysia reviewed military cooperation and explored expansion in exercises, training, maritime work, defence industry, cyber security and disaster relief at the 12th India-Malaysia Sub Committee Meeting in New Delhi. India–Japan Summit Prep: Japan PM Sanae Takaichi arrived in New Delhi for talks with Modi aimed at deepening economic security, energy security, resilient supply chains, defence and investment. China–Japan Tensions: China imposed export curbs on 40 Japanese firms, citing support for Japan’s “new militarism,” while Japan protested the measures. China–Russia Security Link: Reuters reports China conducted covert military training for Russian forces tied to chemical, radiological and biological warfare. China’s Party Message: Xi Jinping said China’s industrial growth offers a model for developing countries as he marked the CPC’s 105th anniversary. Energy/Trade Moves: India plans to recycle nearly 16,000 ships over the next decade with $8bn support; Japan will raise Bangladesh energy assistance to $500m. Sports Spotlight: India left out 15-year-old prodigy Vaibhav Sooryavanshi again for the first men’s T20 vs England. Tech/AI Controls: After US export curbs, Anthropic’s AI models get broader global release following safety testing.

India-Japan Summit: Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi arrives in New Delhi for a three-day visit (July 1-3) to join the 16th India-Japan Annual Summit, aiming to deepen the special strategic partnership on trade, investment and wider regional issues. Energy & trade: India cuts export windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel while raising petrol export duty from July 1, as oil prices ease; meanwhile, state OMCs also cut commercial LPG cylinder prices by up to Rs 183.5 in major cities. China politics & economy: Xi Jinping urged the Communist Party to adapt to changing conditions while protecting gains on the CPC’s 105th anniversary, as analysts point to slower growth and demographics as key challenges. Tech & industry: Samsung Bioepis opens its first overseas R&D office in Beijing to speed drug discovery; China’s AgiBot says it has shipped 15,000 humanoid robots as embodied AI moves into industrial use; and SHEIN confidentially files for a Hong Kong IPO aiming at about $40bn valuation. Cross-border commerce: The EU ends duty-free entry for low-value parcels under €150 from July 1, pushing Chinese sellers toward localized fulfillment. Culture & people-to-people: A Samoan restaurant in Auckland, TALA, wins a Michelin star—an early win for Pacific cuisine on the global stage.

Aviation & Travel: IATA said global air passenger demand fell 2.2% year-on-year in May 2026, with the Middle East hit hardest as West Asia conflict dragged carriers down 28.4%, though load factors hit a record 83.5%. Energy & Trade: Shell warned LNG trade could stay flat in 2026 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions curb about one-fifth of monthly supply, even as demand is forecast to surge toward 2050. China’s Global Push: China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30) aims to boost education influence worldwide, expanding research links, study-abroad services and “Study in China” branding. Geopolitics & Controls: China launched export controls on 40 Japanese entities and, separately, EU-China trade talks kicked off a consultation mechanism covering export controls, IP and WTO reform. India’s Policy & Diplomacy: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stressed India’s global role will hinge on self-reliance and technology; PM Modi also urged West Asia peace through dialogue and diplomacy. Tech & Markets: Meituan released its LongCat-2.0 open-source AI model trained on domestic chips; RedMagic launched a global gaming tablet with a 185Hz OLED and Snapdragon 8 Elite. Sports: India’s U-19 women beat Sri Lanka by 120 runs in the opening unofficial ODI.

Biotech Deal: Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly signed a commercialization and distribution agreement for Verzenios (abemaciclib) in mainland China, with Innovent handling marketing and supply chain promotion while Lilly keeps manufacturing. Public Health: An international alcohol policy symposium backed by WHO-linked groups reiterated alcohol is a Group 1 carcinogen, urging consumption control via taxes, supply restrictions and education. India Politics: 23 parties plus one Independent sent a joint letter to India’s Chief Justice over the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process, with Congress framing it as part of “SURE” resistance. US-China Legal Fallout: Exiled Chinese tycoon Guo Wengui was sentenced to 30 years in a US prison for a $1bn fraud scheme targeting thousands of followers. Trade Tensions: EU and China agreed to keep dialogue going to avoid a trade war, while the EU warned the current imbalance isn’t sustainable. South China Sea: China’s military and coast guard carried out patrols around Scarborough Shoal after US-Philippine drills. Business & Energy: India’s wind sector got a boost as Suzlon’s new S175 turbine secured a first 105 MW order; in India’s markets, benchmarks opened higher amid mixed global cues. Pacific Climate: The GEF approved four new climate adaptation projects across Pacific island states, backing resilience against flooding and sea-level rise.

Geopolitics & Security: North Korea condemned Japan-U.S. joint drills “Resolute Dragon,” calling them a rehearsal for invasion and warning Tokyo of a “tragic end.” Maritime Tensions: China’s coast guard began escorting vessels in Western Pacific waters near overlapping Japan-Philippines EEZs, in a move tied to Taiwan-area jurisdiction claims. Trade & Sanctions: China widened export curbs on Japan, blacklisting 40 defense-linked entities, while the yen slid to a 40-year low amid the deepening row. Regional Diplomacy: The Philippines’ palace said there’s no rift with China despite a public spat between officials, stressing diplomatic resolution. Economy & Markets: Bank of America lifted its global growth outlook on an AI-driven export cycle in Asia and an AI investment boom in the U.S.; markets steadied after U.S.-Iran halted hostilities helped cool oil. Aviation & Logistics: IATA reported global air cargo demand rose 6% in May, with Asia-Pacific carriers up 8%. India Policy & Society: India set up a study group to assess opportunities and challenges for Indian cinema, while Kerala reported leptospirosis deaths and new cases amid monsoon risks. Business: Central Bank of India inaugurated its IFSC banking unit at GIFT City, and India eased emergency-only consular services in the UAE until July 1.

Cricket Shock: Ireland completed a historic 2-0 T20 series sweep over India at Stormont, winning by one run after Jai Moondra’s early wickets and a late fightback that fell short. Women’s World Cup: India’s campaign ended at Lord’s as coach Amol Muzumdar blamed failures in bowling and fielding across the tournament after Australia chased 170 with ease. China- Belarus Ties: Alexander Lukashenko met Xi Jinping in Beijing, with both sides calling relations a “historic peak” amid Ukraine-war tensions. Human Rights & Flight: Chinese dissident Dong Guangping described a perilous dinghy escape via South Korea to Canada, after repeated detentions and monitoring. Pacific Environment: Pacific ministers in Wellington pushed for stronger action on transboundary plastic pollution ahead of Nairobi negotiations, stressing the treaty’s importance for island states. Industrial Pulse: China’s major firms reported faster profit growth in Jan-May, driven by AI electronics and new-energy demand. Aviation & Trade Links: China Eastern ordered 25 Airbus A330neo jets to expand long-haul capacity, while Gatwick added new China routes. Sports-Asia Culture: Pacific voices pushed for stronger representation in global plastic pollution talks, and South Pacific fisheries ministers renewed regional cooperation commitments.

Climate & Food Security: India’s monsoon jitters deepen as a very strong El Niño threatens weaker kharif rains, pushing farmers toward costlier irrigation and raising pressure on groundwater. India–US Tech Push: Washington and New Delhi are moving from talks to projects on semiconductors, AI, quantum and critical minerals, aiming for trusted supply chains. Trade & Industry: China is emerging as a growth engine for India’s frozen shrimp exports, while the US remains the top market. Bangladesh–China Investment: Twelve Chinese firms have proposed about $9.2b in Bangladesh, with big bets on Mongla Port, a Chattogram industrial park and infrastructure. Maritime Pressure: Global shipping faces a worsening workforce shortage, with a projected need for over 113,000 extra officers by 2030. Philippines–China Tensions: Manila rejects Beijing’s stance on the 2016 arbitral award, calling it insincerity over maritime sovereignty. Seychelles–India Ties: PM Modi’s Seychelles visit spotlights maritime cooperation as India hands over a patrol vessel and pacts on defence, UPI and healthcare. Sports: India beat Bangladesh in the Women’s T20 World Cup, while debutant Prince Yadav helped restrict Ireland in India’s second T20I.

India–US Tech Push: India’s MEA says private firms are key to turning the AI, chips, quantum and critical-minerals partnership into real projects, as a USISPF roundtable focuses on “minerals to microchips.” Semiconductor Drive: India approved 12 chip manufacturing projects under ISM with a Rs 1.64 lakh crore pipeline, alongside AI mission compute and model support. Renewables Risk: Zurich warns 90% of India’s planned renewable sites face high or critical climate risk by 2030, urging faster resilience building. Maritime Ties: PM Modi handed Seychelles an India-built patrol vessel plus aid for coast guard capacity, boosting Indian Ocean security links. South China Sea Flashpoint: Philippines’ defense chief accuses China’s embassy of “insincerity” after Beijing rejects the 2016 arbitral ruling, as tensions in the West Philippine Sea persist. China EV Momentum: China’s NEVs hit 56.9% of new car sales in May, driven by lower costs and AI-enabled “software-defined” cabins. Japan Quake: A 6.1 quake struck Japan’s northeast coast; no tsunami warning, but aftershocks remain possible. Sports—World Cup Drama: Japan faces Brazil in knockout action, while India’s women’s T20 World Cup fate hinges on pressure vs Australia at Lord’s. Culture & Food: India’s mango festival in Washington spotlights premium varieties and pushes for wider US availability.

Sustainable Energy & ASEAN Cooperation: Malaysia is set to get its first Zero Energy Office Building at SEDA’s Cyberjaya HQ after a retrofit partnership with Japan’s NEDO and Japanese tech firms, using advanced energy-saving and smart building management systems. India–West Asia Diplomacy: India’s Congress leader Sonia Gandhi urged the government to speak up for Palestinians in Gaza, citing a UN inquiry report alleging genocide and warning India is drifting toward Israel’s “strategic orbit.” Energy Security in South Asia: India has eased restrictions on commercial LPG supplies after improved conditions around the Strait of Hormuz, restoring non-domestic packed LPG and partially resuming bulk deliveries. US–India Trade & Visits: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump is likely to visit India early next year as the bilateral trade deal nears completion, with only “a handful of issues” left. Tech & Chips: Apple has petitioned Washington to allow purchases of RAM from a blacklisted Chinese supplier (CXMT) amid a global memory crunch. Humanitarian Response: India launched Operation Amistad, sending a 41-member disaster relief team to earthquake-hit Venezuela. Sports & Selection Buzz: India’s shock T20I loss to Ireland has reignited debate over team selection, with Vaibhav Suryavanshi’s possible debut in the spotlight. China–Dissident Update: Chinese dissident Dong Guangping, detained after fleeing by dinghy to South Korea, has arrived in Canada to reunite with family.

India Growth Outlook: EY expects India’s FY27 real GDP growth at 6.6%–6.8%, with CPI inflation around 4.5%, assuming easing energy costs and smoother Hormuz shipments. Air India Network: Air India’s CEO says international flight cuts could be rolled back if West Asia airspace curbs ease and fuel prices keep moderating. Exports Push: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal reviewed the Export Promotion Mission with councils, setting fixed DGFT committee schedules and new district export hubs to speed facilitation. Logistics Watch: Ind-Ra turned India’s FY27 logistics outlook to “neutral,” citing geopolitical disruptions and volatile sea freight despite resilient demand. Climate Risk to Ethanol: El Nino and weaker monsoon could tighten sugarcane supplies, threatening India’s ethanol blending goals. India–Seychelles Security Ties: Ahead of PM Modi’s Seychelles visit, officials flag a stronger defence and security focus under Vision MAHASAGAR. China–Cambodia: China’s FM Wang Yi met Cambodian leaders, pledging deeper strategic cooperation. US–China Tech Tensions: Apple is seeking US approval to buy chips from a Chinese blacklisted memory firm, highlighting the squeeze between AI demand and export rules. South China Sea: A report says the US kept high-intensity operations in 2025, despite constraints elsewhere. Kashmir Rights: A report alleges near-totalitarian detention and torture patterns in Indian-administered Kashmir, citing 96,498 deaths since 1989.

Cricket Shock in Belfast: Ireland stunned India by 34 runs in the first T20I, handing the world champions their first loss to Ireland in any format; Shreyas Iyer captained in his first match, but India were bowled out for 148 as Harshit Rana led with 3/24. India–Venezuela Relief: India launched “Operation Amistad,” sending a 41-member medical team and modular field hospital support as Venezuela’s earthquake death toll rose to 589. China–Bangladesh Strategic Push: China’s top legislator Zhao Leji met PM Tarique Rahman in Beijing as both sides mapped deeper cooperation, including defence and a new foreign-minister dialogue mechanism. China’s Global Governance Pitch: China released a White Paper on global governance, laying out how Beijing wants to shape rules in a multipolar world. EU–China Auto Tensions: Reports say the European Commission is preparing anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrids, even as Chinese exports to Europe keep climbing. Workplace Stress Watch: A Gallup report says half of Filipino workers felt stress “a lot of the day” in 2025, the highest in Southeast Asia. Energy Milestone: China’s installed power capacity topped 4 billion kW by May 2026, with renewables at 61%.

China’s Power Leap: China’s installed power capacity has crossed 4,000 GW, with non-fossil sources now the majority—coal down to 32% while solar and wind drive the surge. Bangladesh-China Diplomacy: PM Tarique Rahman laid a wreath at Tiananmen Square and met China’s top legislator Zhao Leji, ahead of talks with Xi Jinping; Bangladesh and China also signed multiple MoUs. India-US Trade Tension: India and the US held fresh ministerial talks, but key issues like tariffs, pharma rules, data flows and agriculture access remain unresolved, with no interim deal signaled before deadlines. India-UK CETA Push: Piyush Goyal says the India-UK CETA and DCC will boost innovation and investment as the rollout nears. Cyber Insurance Gap: Tokio Marine Kiln warns Asia-Pacific manufacturers face rising uninsured cyber losses as attacks increasingly hit industrial control systems. Climate Risk for Renewables: A report says investing just 2% in climate resilience could cut potential renewable losses in India by nearly half. Sports & Culture: Japan and Sweden drew 1-1 to reach the World Cup knockout round; SB19 set for a Grammy Museum “Global Spin Live” appearance; Hong Kong will host a Kunqu opera debut at the Chinese Culture Festival.

India–US Trade Talks: India says it is “very close” to a deal with the US as negotiators review progress and push for an interim agreement before a July 24 deadline, with key issues still unresolved. Big Tech Investment: Amazon announced a record $48 billion investment in India through 2030 after CEO Andy Jassy met PM Narendra Modi, with a major push into AI, cloud, logistics and digital services. Trade & Rights Diplomacy: India and the EU held the 12th Human Rights Dialogue in New Delhi, reaffirming shared democratic values. Regional Security Web: Southeast Asia is building a looser security network through access deals, missile sales and coast-guard cooperation, with India’s BrahMos deal for Vietnam and upgraded Philippines–Vietnam defense ties highlighted. Philippines Growth Warning: S&P cut its Philippines growth forecast sharply to 4.1% for 2026, citing stalled infrastructure spending and energy shocks. Climate & Haze Risk: Singapore faces a red-alert haze risk in the second half of 2026 as El Niño returns and deforestation linked to biofuel demand rises. Aviation Connectivity: Air India Express launched plans for direct flights from Northeast India to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, boosting links to the Middle East. China–Bangladesh Ties: Bangladesh and China signed 13 MoUs during PM Tarique Rahman’s Beijing visit, including cooperation on a China-Bangladesh Friendship Hospital and Rohingya engagement. China–Taiwan Maritime Tensions: China defended coast guard patrols east of Taiwan after European concerns, saying the moves protect maritime order.

Human Rights Watch: A New Zealand-based HRMI assessment says the Philippines is among Southeast Asia’s weakest on civil and political freedoms, flagging a “Safety from the State” score of 4.6/10 and a very low 3.1/10 on protection from arbitrary arrest. Kashmir Politics: The National Conference’s Dachigam meeting is framed as a bid to unify the party and press the Government of India on restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood after the 2019 reorganisation. India-Citizenship Clarity: India’s MEA says an Indian passport is a travel document, not proof of citizenship, as officials stress identity and citizenship are not the same. Security Tech: India plans to link airport facial recognition to a Delhi data fusion centre and the National Intelligence Grid to support real-time monitoring. WTO Trade Fight: The WTO has agreed to set up a panel on China’s challenge to India’s solar manufacturing measures. Climate/Industry: SMBC invests in Japan’s Deep Sky to back carbon dioxide removal and direct air capture market development. Bangladesh-China Investment Push: Bangladesh’s PM invites Chinese firms to expand manufacturing value chains, promising faster approvals and a new China-based investment support office. Asia Markets: Micron’s earnings beat helped lift Asia’s semiconductor mood while oil prices eased, supporting risk sentiment.